Movie Predictions: Miami at Virginia Tech, 10/15

The Miami Hurricanes head north to Blacksburg, Va. to face the Hokies on Saturday, October 15. The game will air regionally or stream on ESPN3 at 12:30 p.m. EST.

The Hokies are 2-4 overall with losses to ODU, West Virginia, UNC and Pitt. The Hurricanes are 2-3 with losses against Texas A&M, Middle Tennessee State and UNC. An intense rivalry between Miami and VT was whittled down to two sub-.500 ball clubs battling it out during a staggered period on regional television.

The Doppler

According to Bill Connelly’s SP+ metrics, the Hurricanes are 54th overall in FBS. Attack is 48th, defense 61st and kicking is 18th. The Hokies are 86th overall in FBS. Offense is 118th, defense is 44th and their kicking game is 30th.

Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

The Hokies only score 20 PPG (116th of 131 in FBS) and allow 26 PPG (69th in FBS). The Hurricanes are scoring 32.8 PPG (46th) and allowing 21.8 PPG (43rd).

It won’t be a scorching game, it could be a 3 yard slog and a cloud of dust football unless OC Josh Gattis decides to roll again with Tyler Van Dyke. Va Tech is 111th in points per gamewhile Miami is fair 106th. VT is 127th in penalties with nine per game, Miami really reduced its penalties – sliding up to 39th with 5.5 per game.

O Hokies

Grant Wells is by no means Drake Maye. Wells completes 59% of his passes for 6.2 yards per attempt and six TDs and seven INTs. Then again, no one on MTSU’s roster is Maye but here we are. Keshawn King was VT’s big hitter, averaging six yards per carry.

Kaleb Smith is the inescapable threat for Wells. He’s averaging 16.1 yards per catch on 25 receptions with two scores. Smith is the guy Miami needs to lock their best cornerback on, but who is it, I’m not sure.

On kick returns, Chance Black is averaging 22.2 yards per return for VT, not too bad for the Hokies.

Above– The LB quits and Wells nails in the RPO tag stare. RPO draw games are even deadlier than the zone because everyone learns from an early age to follow the draw.

Above– VT offense is so bad. The question is, which Miami defenders capitalize? james williams has a few PBUs but will he have that big game-opening interception? Kam Kinchens clearly knows how to find a choice because he has three. But who else is stepping forward?

Above– GT and VT meter spring. Could be deadly against the Miami defense. Leonard Taylor likes to jump gaps with a big swimming motion, but he loses his balance and sometimes he screws up the stroke fit and the LBs look worse than they are.

Above– QB Draw, we know it works against Miami.

Hokies D

Dax Hollifield is the linebacker seeking Gieco Caveman for the Hokies. It’s a real Bud Foster type of pale lunch player. Hollifield has a 47 tackle team and a four TFL team. He also forced a fumble and interrupted six passes with one more sack.

Defensive back Dorian Strong has 14 career PBUs, including three so far in 22. Tech’s pass rush is average, they have 11 sacks with three players having two per play. The Hokies have just two interceptions so far this season.

Above– I like the idea of ​​the fast gun throw, but my issues are: 1- Who is going to define that block that UNC gets from the slot? With Xavier Restrepo out, Miami lost its best perimeter blocker. It is clear that VT needs to recruit and develop and this is a real rebuild.

Above– Something’s gone for UNC here. They were reading the DE which is free, but Maye was never going to be able to pull it off and run away…something was wrong with the call there. VT however got up and got a stoppage on the goal line. Miami has been putrid in the red zone all season even for a team advocating “tenacity” and the run game! Maybe throw them, stop trying to fill them??

Above– you want to see Van Dyke get into his bag and scramble while making those plays. He threw a TD like this against UNC. The concern is which Miami receiver is pointing a ball like this?

Above– Sleight of hand is an important QB trick to pick up. Ken Dorsey had a dangerous game-action mesh. Maye here looks stiff like he just gave in, but then he shoots and runs. When you run enough split zones, you can try some rides.

One is the drag RPO of the h-back while reading the DE.

Another is game-action naked boot outside the sharing zone with the slide towards the TE.

The other is aboveto read the PSDE and the H skips it to go to the LB or safety.

It’s the kind of thing that would make a beautiful package games for the most mobile Jacques Garcia to run.

Above– VT defense isn’t great, but it’s not terrible. It’s really backed against a wall by a bad attack. They can still play 4-2-5 and spread as they have been for decades. Miami backs have lacked that extra gear to go out this season.

Above– I need this from Will Mallory on Saturday. be the guy Van Dyke can rely on with Restrepo. Mallory had a very good day against UNC. Stack up good days to make a great day.

The forecasts

According to ESPN’s win expectancy, Miami is a 78.4% favorite to win Va Tech. The Hokies are struggling (not that Miami isn’t) and were trampled by the UNC Tar Heels 41-10 on Oct. 1. Transitive property is clearly not a thing in college football, just watch Tulane lose to Southern Miss or one of the other disappointed/future-looking sandwiches (The Solid Verbal), etc.

Canyonero’s keys to the summer victory were:

1- Contain the wells. Wells isn’t going to put Touchdown numbers Tommie Frazier on the floor, but he can pick up the first downs with his legs and Miami is clearly likely to rush for the first downs to keep the drives alive.

2- In attack, do not be greedy. Drive, Mesh, Shallow Cross – use the concepts of short to intermediate passes that have a paced course in progression, then one to two easy to read courses.

For the Shallow Conduct concept it takes 2.2-2.6 seconds (per Dub Maddox) to get the ball out for read concepts.

Above– For Dub Maddox, the Q can tag the X on a route as fade or post. It’s more of a pre-snap “gift” type concept.

1st in the progression is the shallow cross of the S is the rhythm Lily. The Q reads the space where it would end up.

The 1st reading journey (2nd in the progression) is the excavation of the Y.

The 2nd reading path (3rd course in progression) would be the course of the RB.

This concept could open jalil Skinner like the TE (Yes) in an intermediate space.

3- Stop running. Make the Hokies one-dimensional, then separate them. Keshawn King and Jalen Holston shared the carries with King averaging six yards per carry with two touchdowns, and Holston averaging 3.2 yards per carry with two scores of his own. Nothing earth-shattering, but Miami can’t be the team VT opens the running game on.

Prediction: Miami by 10. Until the ‘Canes prove they can really score big on a regular basis, I don’t see them blowing anyone up, even a bad Va Tech team.